THE GLOBAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS CRISIS: ENERGY SECURITY IN PRESENT CONTEXT

Article by

Aaryan Kumar

BAJMC Sem 6

 

pexels

The weaponisation of energy has emerged as the defining geopolitical lever of our times. From the frozen pipelines of Europe to the contested straits of the Persian Gulf, energy supply is no longer merely an economic commodity it is a strategic instrument of modern warfare. The ongoing conflicts have exposed the fragility of global energy architecture, triggering the most severe energy security crisis since the 1973 oil embargo.

Background and Triggering Conflicts

The February 2022 Russia–Ukraine war ruptured Europe’s energy architecture overnight. Moscow slashed pipeline gas flows by 80%, weaponizing its 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) supply and propelling Brent crude from 70 to over 120/barrel. Simultaneously, Middle East tensions especially Iran-Israel hostilities and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have threatened the 21 million barrels/day transit through the Hormuz Strait. The Nord Stream sabotage and sanctions on Russian oil (price cap at $60/barrel) fractured global supply chains, forcing Europe to absorb 60% more liquefied natural gas (LNG), while Russia re-routed 2.3 million barrels/day to Asia.

Western sanctions on Russian oil, including the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel and the EU embargo on seaborne crude, have fragmented global energy markets into competing blocs. The result: a two-tier pricing system where discounted Russian crude flows eastward while Europe scrambles for alternatives at premium rates.

However, the instability has spread beyond Eastern Europe. Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel, have reintroduced the risk premium to global crude markets. The vulnerability of maritime choke points has been starkly illustrated by attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Tankers are now frequently rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to delivery times and inflating freight costs. These conflicts have fractured the illusion of a seamless global supply chain.

Ripple Effects Across the Global Economy

The energy shock has been inflationary by nature. The International Monetary Fund estimated that energy price spikes contributed 2–3 percentage points to global inflation during 2022–2023. Central banks responded with aggressive monetary tightening, but the underlying supply constraints persist. Energy security has returned to the forefront of national strategy. Europe's emergency pivot to liquefied natural gas (LNG) saw imports surge by 60% in 2022, with the United States becoming the world's largest LNG exporter. Qatar, Australia, and Algeria have gained strategic leverage as suppliers.

OPEC+, despite Western pressure, has maintained production discipline. Saudi Arabia's voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels per day through 2024 signalled Riyadh's prioritization of price stability over market share. Russia, despite sanctions, has redirected crude to India and China, maintaining exports above 7 million barrels daily. Iran, under sanctions, continues shadow exports estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day. Venezuela, with the world's largest proven reserves, remains constrained by infrastructure decay and U.S. sanctions, though selective licensing has allowed marginal increases.

The United States, now the world's largest oil producer at over 13 million barrels per day, has leveraged its energy abundance for geopolitical influence while replenishing its Strategic Petroleum Reserve after historic drawdown’s.

The economic fallout has been severe. Energy-driven inflation forced central banks worldwide into a cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes, dampening global growth. Strategically, the crisis triggered a scramble for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), transforming a regional gas market into a fiercely competitive global one. As Europe hoarded LNG to replace Russian pipeline gas, developing nations in Asia faced spot-market prices that priced them out of the grid.
The broader landscape suggests a looming bifurcation of the global energy order. We are witnessing the weaponization of finance and insurance against energy transport, countered by the rise of alternative payment mechanisms outside the US dollar. Energy alliances are hardening: the West is building a "friend-shoring" network for LNG and critical minerals, while the BRICS nations explore independent energy trading blocs

Crucially, the volatility of fossil fuels has unintentionally accelerated the renewable transition. The push for solar, wind, and green hydrogen is no longer driven solely by climate idealism but by hard-nosed security strategy. Renewables offer domestic energy generation that is immune to the blockades of the Strait of Hormuz or the caprice of foreign gas suppliers.

pexels

India's Strategic Calculus

India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements, making it acutely vulnerable to global price  fluctuations. New Delhi's pragmatic response, purchasing discounted Russian Urals crude despite Western disapproval has been economically rational. Russian oil imports to India increased from under 1% of total imports in early 2022 to over 40% by late 2023.

This strategy has helped the government reduce financial pressure and shield consumers from sudden increases in fuel prices. However, dependence on any single supplier carries risks. India's energy diplomacy has consequently accelerated diversification: long-term LNG contracts with Qatar and the UAE, equity stakes in Russian Far East projects, and expanded ties with African producers.

The Centre's push for ethanol blending, solar capacity expansion, and green hydrogen production reflects recognition that import dependence is a structural vulnerability requiring long-term mitigation.

A New Energy Order

Prolonged conflicts will accelerate energy regionalization rather than globalization. The weaponization of energy supply by major powers, combined with sanctions regimes and supply-chain fragmentation, incentivizes self-sufficiency among aligned blocs: Western renewables-and-LNG alliances versus non-aligned players securing long-term contracts with Russia, Iran, and Gulf producers. Energy security will focus which nations lead or follow in an era were geopolitical power flows along supply corridors.

Conclusion

The global oil and natural gas crisis have demonstrated that energy is no longer merely an economic commodity but a powerful geopolitical weapon. Wars such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Middle East have exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains, triggering price volatility, inflation, and strategic competition among major powers. Europe’s heavy dependence on Russian gas before the war around 40% of its imports, highlighted how energy dependency can quickly transform into a strategic vulnerability during geopolitical crises.

For major economies and developing nations alike, the crisis has reinforced a central lesson: energy security is national security. Countries are now racing to diversify suppliers, expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, strengthen strategic petroleum reserves, and forge new energy alliances. At the same time, the turmoil has accelerated the global push toward renewable energy, as governments increasingly recognize that reliance on fossil fuels tied to unstable regions can undermine economic and political stability.

For India and other large energy importing nations, the challenge lies in balancing economic growth with long-term energy resilience. Strategic purchasing, diversified partnerships, and investments in clean energy will be critical in navigating future shocks. Ultimately, the current crisis signals a profound transformation in the global energy order. In an era where pipelines, shipping routes, and oil fields can shape the outcome of conflicts, the control and security of energy resources will remain one of the defining factors of global power and stability in the twenty-first century.

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

 (Author's opinion)

References:

1.     International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). World Energy Outlook 2022. OECD/IEA.

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022

2.     U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2023). United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545

3.     International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023

4.     U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2023). *Strait of Hormuz: World’s Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint.

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints

5.     International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). Oil Market Report – November 2023.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2023

6.     OPEC. (2023). OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation: Production Adjustment Decisions. OPEC Secretariat.

  https://www.opec.org

 

DIVING DEEP INTO BANGLADESH ELECTIONS 2026

Article by

Aaryan Kumar

BAJMC Sem 6

Bangladesh Flag                  Pic: Wikimedia Commons

The 2026 Bangladesh National Elections shaped up to be one of the most significant in the country’s modern history. For millions of citizens, this election carried the weight of a promise, a promise born from the beginning of August 2024, when student led protests ignited a nationwide movement that displaced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and exposed the fragility of a government long seen as untouchable. What began as chants on university campuses quickly became the voice of a nation, reflecting frustration over entrenched political power, corruption, and governance gaps.

In the two years since, an interim administration has worked to rebuild trust in institutions, reforming the judiciary, professionalizing the police, and preparing the election commission to oversee credible polls. The voters now head to the polls with both hope and nervousness, knowing that their decision could influence the country’s democracy for many years to come. Beyond just domestic stakes, the outcome carries profound implications for South Asia and the world.

The interim government inherited a fractured polity; a weakened Awami League, an emboldened Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia's faction, and a resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami. This election is the first real test of whether Bangladesh can consolidate its democratic transition or risk slipping back into instability.

From Protest to Polls: The Road from 2024

August 2024 marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s political journey. What began as student-led protests on university campuses quickly spread across the nation, drawing in citizens from all walks of life. The demonstrations reflected growing frustration over corruption, lack of accountability, and the concentration of power. As the movement gained momentum, it transformed from campus activism into a nationwide call for democratic reform. Eventually, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down and went into exile, creating one of the most dramatic political shifts in the country’s recent history. For many Bangladeshis, this moment proved that even the strongest governments can be challenged when people unite.

Following this, turmoil an interim government assumed responsibility during a delicate period of transition. Its primary objective was to rebuild public trust and restore confidence in state institutions. Over the next two years, efforts were made to reform the judiciary, professionalize law enforcement, and strengthen the Election Commission to ensure credible elections in 2026. The journey from protest to polls was not smooth, but it represented a gradual move toward institutional stability. By the time voters returned to cast their ballots, the country stood at a crossroads shaped by the courage of protest and guided by the hope for a more accountable democratic future.

GLOBAL INTERESTS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

Bangladesh sits at the strategic crossroads of the Bay of Bengal, India’s northeast gateway, and the wider Indo-Pacific supply chain. Its economic and geopolitical importance is now impossible to ignore. Dhaka plays an important role in the global garment industry, supplying clothing to markets in Europe and North America. If political instability rises, it can disrupt exports, delay shipments, increase business costs, and affect the flow of money that millions of Bangladeshi families depend on for their livelihood.

The country also hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world the Rohingya in Cox’s Bazar making governance and stability critical for regional humanitarian outcomes. The elections will signal to international actors, from the United States to the European Union, whether Bangladesh’s democratic institutions can withstand pressure and deliver credible governance. For global investors and multilateral partners, February 2026 is a referendum not just on leadership, but on predictability, rule of law, and resilience.

INDIA’S HIGH-STAKES GAMBLE

After the 2026 elections, the focus has shifted to how India will respond to the new political reality in Dhaka. For New Delhi, Bangladesh remains strategically important in both the short and long term. A stable government in Dhaka is essential for border security, controlling cross-border insurgency, managing migration, and maintaining cooperation on counterterrorism. India has also invested significantly in connectivity, energy projects, and trade corridors, making political stability crucial for economic continuity.

Diplomatically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had built close ties with former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The new leadership now tests whether India can maintain its influence while respecting Bangladesh’s democratic choices. Matters such as the Teesta water-sharing agreement and ongoing infrastructure projects have become key indicators of mutual trust. Ultimately, the post-election phase reflects how developments in Dhaka directly affect India’s security, economic interests, and regional influence.

THE GREAT POWER CONTEST

After the 2026 elections, Bangladesh stands at the centre of global strategic competition. China views it as a key partner under the Belt and Road Initiative, while the United States sees it as an important democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific. The new government must carefully balance these relationships while also managing ties with India.

Leaning too much toward one power could create diplomatic and economic risks. Bangladesh must protect its national interests without becoming overly dependent on any single country. The choices made after the election will shape regional stability, trade, and international partnership.

CONCLUSION: DEMOCRACY IN THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE

The 2026 elections were far more than a routine political event; they marked the outcome of Bangladesh’s determined struggle to reclaim its democratic voice. After years of tension, protest, and institutional reform, citizens finally witnessed a transition shaped by their participation. For many ordinary people, voting was not simply a civic duty  it was an emotional moment. It represented the transformation of frustration into action, uncertainty into decision, and fear into renewed confidence in the democratic process. The streets that once carried the energy of protest now reflect cautious optimism. The election proved that political authority ultimately rests with the people.

For India and the broader South Asian region, the results signal stability and continuity at a crucial time. A functioning and accountable government in Dhaka strengthens trade routes, energy cooperation, and border management. On the global stage, major powers such as China and the United States are closely observing how the new leadership shapes foreign policy and balances strategic partnerships. The post-election phase will test Bangladesh’s ability to maintain sovereignty while engaging with powerful international actors.

Yet beyond diplomacy and strategy, the deeper meaning of 2026 lies with the citizens themselves the students who first raised their voices, the workers who endured uncertainty, and the voters who believed that change was possible. Their patience and resilience have brought the nation to this defining chapter. The future will still require careful governance, economic reform, and unity. But after this election, Bangladesh moves forward with a clearer reminder: democracy may be fragile, but when protected by its people, it remains a powerful force for stability, dignity, and hope.

(Author's own opinion)

REFERENCES

·       Ahmed, N. (2019). The 2018 Bangladesh election: Democratic reversal and authoritarian consolidation. Asian Survey, 59(6), 1023–1045.

·       Bashar, I. (2020). India–Bangladesh relations: From security partnership to economic cooperation. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 7(3), 335–354.

·       Baruah, D. M. (2020). India in the Indo-Pacific: New Delhi’s theater of opportunity. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (scholarly policy paper frequently cited in Indian strategic studies).

·       Hassan, M. (2021). Authoritarian resilience and political opposition in Bangladesh. Contemporary South Asia, 29(2), 181–197.

·       Muni, S. D. (2015). India’s neighbourhood policy: Challenges and prospects. India Quarterly, 71(2), 115–130.

·       Pant, H. V. (2017). India’s regional diplomacy in South Asia: Strategic imperatives. Strategic Analysis, 41(4), 295–309

·       Riaz, A. (2022). Bangladesh in 2021: Democratic backsliding and the challenge of political pluralism. Asian Survey, 62(1), 148–155.

·       Scott, D. (2019). The Bay of Bengal in the Indo-Pacific: Strategic competition and regional security. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, 15(3), 267–283.

·       Yasmin, L. (2016). Bangladesh–China relations: Strategic implications for South Asia. Strategic Analysis, 40(5), 450–463

 

Mighty Eagle lurking in the sand: Iran-USA Relations!

Article on Iran-US Relations

Aaryan Kumar

BAJMC Sem 6

 

Pexels

If you have been following the news lately, you have probably heard whispers or maybe shoutout about tensions between Iran and the United States. But why does this matter to us, and why are we talking about it now?

The simple answer is, what happens between these two countries will affect us. This article discusses about the potential military conflict in the Middle East region that supplies much of the world's oil, nuclear weapons development that could reshape global security, and a humanitarian crisis that can claim thousands of innocent lives. In December 2025, Iran's currency collapsed, sparking massive peaceful public protests. In January, The Guardian reported about the brutal crackdown of by the Iranian Government that resulted in bodies disappearing and more than 30,000 dead. Meanwhile, the U.S. has moved its mighty USS Abraham Lincoln and the military fleet into the region and is threatening military strikes. 

Read on to know more...

 Historical Setting

The Iran-USA conflict today started with the Islamic Revolution in 1979. This revolution changed everything between Iran and the United States of America. Before the revolution Tehran and Washington were allies but later became enemies. The Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988 is a part of this conflict. The United States of America backed Iraq in this war. We also have to think about what happened in 1953. That is when the CIA helped removed Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh of Iran. This made a lot of people in Iran angry with the United States.

For a time, the United States has been putting sanctions on Iran. Then in 2015 Iran and the United States were part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This is also called the Iran nuclear deal. It helped to reduce tensions, between Iran and the United States for a while. Then the United States decided to leave the deal in 2018. The Iran-USA conflict is still an issue today because of all these things.

 

Present Geopolitical Context and Multiple Dimensions:

Nuclear Program Negotiations

Iran has suggested that it could lower its uranium enrichment from 60 percent to 20 percent. This move would depend on the United States agreeing to lift the economic sanctions currently placed on the country.

Iran had actually agreed to back in 2015. Now Iranian officials do not want to talk about Iran’s missiles or what Iran is doing in other parts of the region.

 Regional Military Threats

Iran’s ballistic missile programs and the proxy networks, which include Hezbollah and the Houthis, are a problem for the United States forces and its biggest ally Israel in that region. The proxies, like Hezbollah and the Houthis have attacked the United States forces in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. This makes it very risky to lift sanctions, on Iran if they do not agree to limit the missile programs and the activities of these proxy networks, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis rebels.

Internal Instability

Iran is going through a tough time the worst it has seen since 1979. There are protests over the country, the economy is in big trouble and people are very unhappy with the government.

The people in charge are brutal on those who want to make changes. They are using aggressive consequences for people who are protesting on streets and gagging the usage of social media and internet. 

US Policy Options

The Trump administration putting its brain towards it, and focusing on ideas: that they could try to communicate to the other side, about nuclear weapons but just a little bit.

They could send in the military to help keep protesters safe. The Trump administration could also put tariffs on the country to hurt their economy. Another thing the Trump administration might try is to use their go to dish; to change the government of the country or to have the military coup.

 Why It Matters Today?

Global energy and trade: Iran sits on major oil and gas reserves; U.S. sanctions influence global prices.

Regional security: Tensions spill into Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, affecting global peace efforts.

Nuclear proliferation: The issue tests global non-proliferation norms.

Human rights and diplomacy: Dialogue on Iran’s internal politics connects to broader democratic debates.

The Iran-USA issue needs to be looked at because it is about the risks of nuclear weapons the possibility of more fighting in the Middle East region and the welfare of Iranian civilians. To solve this problem we have to find a balance between keeping people safe and being practical, through communication. This is a challenge right now because the Iran-USA issue is quite tricky and Tehran & Washington do not trust each other at any cost and they possess their different opinions. The Iran-USA issue is very sensitive as well as globally challenged. The world needs to brainstorm about the Iran-USA issue, as diplomacy & dialogue is the only solution for this noble world. 

Latest News

The rapid buildup of US military forces in the Middle East has reached a point where President Donald Trump could approve strikes against Iran soon. In fact, the strikes could come as early as this weekend, according to administration and Pentagon officials, reported The New York Times.

 Read on to know more: 

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/iran-us-conflict-trump-military-strike-date-10540041/

 

References:

·   Al Jazeera. (2025, June 23). History of US–Iran relations: From the 1953 regime change to Trump strikes. Al Jazeera English

·   Al Jazeera. (2026, January 29). US-Iran tensions soar: What do both sides want? Al Jazeera English

·   Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Iran’s conflict with Israel and the United States. Global Conflict Tracker. Retrieved February 11, 2026

·   Anadolu Agency. (n.d.). Timeline – US-Iran tensions: From 12-day war to current standoff. Retrieved February 11, 2026